A reaction paper on the statement

Thomas Edison failed many times before successfully inventing the modern electric light bulb. He said, â€Å"If I find 10,000 ways something won’t work, I haven’t failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward.† Reflect on an accomplishment you achieved in an unlikely way.People are known for their ability of becoming the best individuals that they could be even in the middle of disadvantageous situations. It is undeniable that because of the many challenges that people have to live with, they are now able to understand the major issues that are involved within the system of real human living.Aside from gaining the knowledge of the realities about challenges, humans are now able to make the best out of the hardships that come along the way as they intend to be the best that they could be in facing their own lives. Thomas Edison has been among the major personalities in the human history that has been able to make certa in changes in the society through applying the said idealism of NEVER GIVING UP in the middle of major issues of survival in life.Consistently considering this particular fact of life has already made great changes and institutional breakthroughs in the society today. This is certainly the same with the situation that is dealt with by each individual that is considerably facing difficult problems and challenges as persons making up the society today.As for the case of the author of this paper, it could be observed that she has been able to wake up from a dark situation that challenged her ability to withstand the dangers and the hardships of being ill. Although she had been facing such problems with her health, she has been noted to actually understand that she should and must be able to continue her personal development even with so much challenges that she has to face because of her case.Because of this, it is undeniable that she was able to stand up again and become the kind of p erson she wants herself to be, a fighter. She chose to continue her studies amidst all the odds that faced her along the way to at least develop her own skills and make definite changes as to the way that she lives her life beyond all the challenges that she is supposed to deal with.Through this account of actual life experience, it could be noted that challenges are supposed to be faced as major probabilities of changes among human individuals. IT is through these challenges and difficulties that the human society tries to make a difference upon their lives. It is through this particular factor of life that each individual is able to become a stronger person who is able to face the different challenges in his own journey.People who are able to stand up again after a failure that may or may not be inflicted by their ownselves, are those whoa re able to make huge changes in the lives of many people, through inspiring them to fight for their right to a fine way of living and through b ecoming the pillars of truth that attests to the fact that standing up and not giving up is a major part of living a successful way of life.One’s real purpose in living could be identified to the ways by which he is particularly able to face the different challenges that he is naturally faced with in his own journey towards personal development and social connection as well.

Hong Kong Moral and National Education

Do you think moral and national education should be abolished? Moral and national education had recently become a hot topic in Hong Kong. Moral and national education  is a school curriculum proposed by the  Education Bureau of Hong Kong, it s transformed from the current moral and civic education. The Education Bureau stated that it is to cultivate â€Å"positive values and attitudes† in students. Schools are forced to make it into an independent subject and teachers will teach according to curriculum given by the Education Bureau.However, the society suspected that it is brainwashing, they express their concerns through forming associations like Scholarism and marching. National Education should have included different perspectives for students to know more about their country and citizenship. Instead of letting students know about their country thoroughly, the information is carefully selected by the government. Of the 19 references, 18 of them were written by mainland Chinese. There are no references from local or foreign scholar, no diverse views and different interests.They are all one-sided view of China and neglected lots of important issues such as the development in human rights and democracy in China. Such references and handbooks are inappropriate to use as teaching materials. Hong Kong schools already have liberal studies, civil education and Chinese history, content of lessons are overlapped. Students are overburdened by homework, test and examination. Schools and teachers are rushing through the syllabus of HKDSE. Time is tight for both school and students, another compulsory subject is not needed. This creates more pressure and stress than the benefit it might have on the major stakeholders.The curriculum guide for the evaluation of student’s performance is also being worried. Students have to be emotionally touched in order to show their patriotism. It focuses students to dissemble or to fake their feelings in order to get hig her marks, it is not a proper way of education. Along with contents that praises the Communist China, â€Å"advanced, altruistic and united governing body† with characteristics that â€Å"ensuring stable governance, protecting wholeness of country†. Students are to be brainwashed and to love their country blindly. Extreme nationalism and patriotism can easily leads to war just because of a little conflict (WW1).In my opinion, a moral and civic education curriculum committee should be set to draw up guide lines and design the teaching materials. It should be consist of trained teachers, parents and people from different parts of the society. The curriculum committee can also monitor the implantation of this subject or whether it should become a subject at school. With all the rejections and disagreements from professional teachers, parents and even students themselves, the government should understand their concerns and go for a more opened approach.

Financial Analysis of AB InBev

The Anheuser-Busch InBev Company (AB InBev) was established throughout the years through mergers and acquisitions. AB InBev is the largest brewery in Jupille, Belgium. They operate in North America, Latin America, South America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Due to political upheavals in Germany and Bohemia in 1848, many German immigrants settled in St. Louis, Missouri (â€Å"Anheuser-Busch,† 2011). Eberhard Anheuser was a trained soap maker and became part owner of the Bavarian Brewery. By 1860, he bought the investors’ shares and the brewery name was changed to E. Anheuser & Co. Adolphus Busch married Lilly Anheuser, Eberhard’s daughter and later Adolphus purchased half ownership of Anheuser’s brewery, becoming a partner (â€Å"Anheuser-Busch,† 2011). Due to Busch’s innovations, the brewery became the first to use pasteurization, allowing the beer to be shipped long distances without spoiling. By the early 1880’s, the brewer introduced a rtificial refrigeration, rail-side icehouses, and refrigerated railcars. These innovations allowed the company to grow and distribute their beer across the country. To market the beers Busch used traditional selling methods; however, Busch’s methods were more organized and deliberate than his competitors. Busch â€Å"pioneered the use of giveaways and premiums, and used his brewery as a showplace for the public to visit† (â€Å"Anheuser-Busch,† 2011). The brewery company was renamed Anheuser-Busch Brewing Association in 1879 to recognize Adolphus’ efforts. The company became one of the nation’s leading breweries in 1901 when it broke the one million barrels of beer sales mark (â€Å"Anheuser-Busch,† 2011). Over the years, the company grew through acquisitions and mergers and became AB InBev. In 1989, a group of investors purchased Brahma, the number two beer in Brazil. In 1999, the brand took over the number one spot and was combined with its chief competitor to form AmBev. AmBev expanded throughout South America and became the third-largest brewer in the world. In 2004, Interbrew, the European beer company, acquired a majority stake in AmBev, which created InBev. In 2008, InBev purchased Anheuser-Busch; resulting in the new company AB InBev (Allen & Zook, 2012). Anheuser-Busch (AB InBev) The publicly traded company (Euronext: ABI) is based in â€Å"Leuven, Belgium with American Depositary Receipts on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: BUD)† (Anheuser-Busch InBev [AB InBev], 2011) and is not only the leading global brewer, but is one of the world’s top five consumer product companies. AB InBev’s portfolio contains over 200 brands of beer with fourteen brands that generate over $1 billion per year in revenue. The brewer invests in their greatest growth potential brands such as Budweiser with 45% of sales originating in North America. The company owns 50 percent equity interest in Mexico’s leading brewer and owner of the Corona brand, the subsidiary Grupo Modelo. With their approximate 116,000 employees based in twenty-three countries worldwide, AB InBev is geographically diversified, along with a balanced exposure to developing and developed markets, the company has a completive edge. AB InBev is a multinational beverage company and is the largest brewer, with almost 25 percent global market share. They are the third largest FMCG company by firm value (AB InBev, 2011). AB InBev was chosen for a financial analysis due to its longevity and innovated ideas and marketing. It is hoped that AB InBev’s financial records will show that their innovated methods will show a continuous financial growth. The Annual Report For this analysis, AB InBev’s 2011 annual report is used and it compares 2010 and 2011. The audit was performed by Pricewaterhouse Coopers. The report is in millions and AB InBev saw a $2,197m in profit gain from 2010 to 2011 and a $1,114m in cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital and use of provision. The change in working capital was $1,183m resulting in an increase of $2,581m of cash flow from operating activities. There was a negative increase in the investing and financing activities, $185m and $2,239m respectively. In 2010, AB InBev had a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of $602m and $759m in 2011. Overall, in 2011 AB InBev realized $39 billion revenue (AB InBev, 2011). The Balance Sheet When assessing the financial report, it may be difficult to see positive revenue. In order to understand, one must know how interpret the financial statement as a whole. The balance sheet provides information about AB InBev’s assets, liabilities, and shareholder’s equity. Assets are things that a company can sell or use. These items include physical property, inventory, equipment, etc. Intangibles are also assets – things that cannot be touched, but nevertheless have value, i. e. patents and trademarks, investments the company makes. And of course cash is the main asset. Liabilities are amounts that the company owes to others. These amounts can include a loan secured to launch a new product, rent for use of a factory, or money owed to a supplier, etc. Liabilities also include future obligations, i. e. goods or services promised to be provided in the future. Shareholder equity (or capital or net worth) is the money that would be left if a company sold all of its assets and paid off all their liabilities. Any money left over belongs to the owners (or shareholders) of the company. The balance sheet’s â€Å"equation† is Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders’ equity (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). The balance sheet is set up with the assets listed and tallied on the left side, while liabilities and shareholders’ equity on the right. The assets are usually listed in order of how quickly they can be converted into â€Å"real† cash. Current assets are things that the company plans to convert to cash within one year, i. e. inventory. Noncurrent assets are things that are expected to be converted to cash longer than a year. Noncurrent assets include fixed assets (not available for sale, i. e. office furniture). Liabilities are usually listed according to their due dates. Liabilities are either current or long-term. Current liabilities are debts that the company expects to pay off within a year; on the other hand, long-term liabilities are due in more than a year. Shareholders’ equity (SE) is the amount invested by the owners. SE is calculated by subtracting the company’s earnings or losses from the owner’s investment in the company’s stock (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). In assessing AB InBev’s balance sheet for 2011, the company had $39,046 million in revenues, a 4. 6% increase, and a gross profit of $22,412 million. It is stated in the annual report that a selective price increase was taken in the last quarter in anticipation of higher commodity costs. Cost of Sales (CoS) increased by 1. 6%. This increase was due; according to AB InBev in part to lower aluminum can costs in Latin America and procurement savings and implementation of their best practice programs in North America. The total operating expenses increased by 3. 7%. This was partly due to distribution expenses increasing by 9. 2%. Brazil had higher transportation costs, while Latin America South saw higher labor costs and higher transport tariffs in Ukraine and Russia. Sales and marketing expenses increased by 4. 1% because, specifically in North America, more investments in brand offset savings in non-working money. Administrative expenses increased by 0. % due to fixed cost savings in the United States offset by salary increases and expansion costs in China and Brazil. Other operating income was $694 million compared to $64 million in 2010 mainly because of tax incentives in China and Brazil (AB InBev, 2011). The Income Statement An income statement shows how much revenue a company earned and the costs assoc iated with earning said revenue. The bottom line of an income statement normally shows the company’s net losses or earning. This statement tells how much the company has made or lost over the accounting period, usually for a year or a portion thereof. Income statements reports earnings per share (EPS). (To calculate EPS, the total net income is divided by the number of outstanding shares of the company). An income statement also shows how much shareholders would receive if the company distributed all of the net earnings for the accounting period; however, most companies reinvest their earnings (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). Income statements begin with the total amount of revenue made during an accounting period and then deduct certain costs and operating expenses associated with earning said revenue. The bottom line tells how much the ompany earned or lost during the period. The beginning is the â€Å"gross† revenue (or sales). The next line is the amount the company does not expect to collect (referred to as allowances), i. e. discounts, or returns. After deducting these allowances from the gross revenues (or sales), the result is net revenues. The next lines are operating expenses. Although these expenses can be lis ted in various order, the line after net revenues is usually costs of sales. Costs of sales is the amount the company has spent producing the goods or services sold during the accounting period. Subtracting cost of sales from net revenues gives a subtotal of gross profit (also known as gross margin) (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). The operating expenses are listed next on the income statement. These expenses support a company’s operations, i. e. salaries, marketing, etc. Because operating expenses cannot be linked to the production of products or services being sold, they are different from costs of sales (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). Depreciation is also deducted. Depreciation is the amount of wear and tear on assets (machinery, tools, etc. ) that are used over long term. This amount is spread over the periods they are used and is called depreciation or amortization. After this deduction from the gross profit, the income from operations is arrived. This amount is before interest and income tax expenses (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). The next section allows companies to account for interest income and interest expense. Interest income is earned from interest-bearing savings accounts, money market funds, etc. Interest expenses are monies paid in interest on loans, etc. Some companies show these separately and some combine the two. The income and expenses are totaled and then deducted from the operating profit to arrive at operating profit before income tax (EBIT). Finally, income tax is subtracted and the bottom line of net profit or net loss (also known as net income, net earnings, or net operating income) is calculated (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). On AB InBev’s income statement, sales are the same as on the balance sheet. (AB InBev, 2011). In North America, EBITDA increased 1. 5%, $6. 573 million with a margin expansion increase up to 42. 9%, driven by growth in overhead cost reductions and gross profit. In the combined statement (the gathering of all AB InBev’s companies), the EBIT for 2011 is $12,607 million and an EBITDA of $15,357 million (AB InBev, 2011). Cash Flow Statements While a balance sheet is a snapshot and the income statement shows if the company made a profit or lost money, a cash flow statement shows if the company generated cash. Cash flow statements shows the inflow and outflows of the company’s cash. This statement is very important because it proves that the company has enough money to pay expenses, purchase assets, and stay competitively profitable. Whereas other financial statements shows an absolute dollar amount at a particular time, a cash flow statement show changes during the accounting period. The cash flow statement uses the information from both balance sheet and income statement. Cash flow statements are divided into three major sections: operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). AB InBev’s financial report consolidates the activities, followed by a breakdown of the activities including explanations. Operating activities rose from $9,905million to $12,486 million; investing activities increased from a negative $2,546m in 2010 to negative $2,731m in 2011; and financing activities rose from $6,757m to $8,996m in 2011. However, the net increase in cash and cash equivalents increased from $602m to $759m (AB InBev, 2011). Operating activities. The first section of a cash flow statement analyzes inflow from net income or loses. This section usually reconciles the net income (taken from the income statement) to the actual cash the company received from and used in its operating activities. This process adjusts net income for any non-cash items, i. e. adding depreciation expenses back, and for any cash that was a source or a use provided by other operating assets and liabilities (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). AB InBev’s financial report of cash flows shows an increase in operating activities. This increase is due to a higher profit and strong contribution from changes in the working capital. The increase in working capital is the result of on-going trade initiatives; furthermore, there is an increase in trade payables that are linked to higher capital expenditures. These expenditures have longer payment terms (AB InBev, 2011). Investing activities. Investing activities shows the inflow from all investing activities. These activities usually include purchases or sales of long-term assets, i. e. property, plant, and equipment (PPE) as well as investment securities. If a company buys machinery, this activity would be listed as a cash outflow because cash was used. However, if the company sold some investments from their portfolio the proceeds would be an inflow from investing activities because it is a source of cash (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). AB InBev’s investing activities were $2,731m in 2011, compared to 2010 which was $2,546m. This increase is by higher capital expenditures mainly in Brazil and China. To partially offset this increase, the company sold short-term debt securities. The company invested in 2010 to facilitate liquidity and capital preservation in Brazil. Net capital expenditures were $3,256m in 2011 and $2,123 in 2010. This increase is primarily linked to investments for expansion in China and Brazil in order to meet demands in the growing market. Approximately 57% was used to improve production facilities while 33% was used for logistics and commercial investments. Ten percent was used for purchase of hardware and software and improving administration (AB InBev, 2011). Financing activities. The last section is financing activities. This part of the cash flow statement shows the typical sources of inflow, including cash raised by selling stocks or bonds and borrowing funds from a bank (Garrison, Noreen, & Brewer, 2010). Cash inflow from financing activities was $8,996m in 2011, compared to 2010’s $6,757m. The 2011 amount reflects higher dividend payouts, net repayments, and settlements of derivatives that were not part of a hedge. AB InBev could borrow enough to meet its liquidity needs; the company’s policy is to rely on cash flows from operating activities to fund its continuing operations (AB InBev, 2011). Analysis of AB InBev’s Financials According to the 2011 annual report, Anheuser-Busch InBev saw a year of solid performance and progress. AB InBev experienced growth, expanded their EBITDA margin, grew EPS, and made strides in de-leveraging the balance sheet. AB InBev experienced a strong growth from their three well-known global brands: Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Beck’s. These brands were up by 3. 1%. Stella Artois volumes increased by 5. 9%, with a 24% surge in sales in the United States, 13% in Argentina, and 200% in Brazil. The company continues to expand and grow in China and Brazil. The company raised its dividends to 1. 20 euros per share, a 50 % increase. â€Å"These results were achieved despite weak consumer confidence in several markets and increases in commodity prices. Faced with adverse conditions, our people did what they do best. They took ownership of the situation, focused on what they can impact, and did not let short-term factors distract from our long-term goals of connecting with consumers, driving shareholder value, and working toward our dream: to be the Best Beer Company in a Better World† (AB InBev, 2011). The United States shows signs of an economic recovery. An increase in US profits are supported by the company's new NFL sponsorship. Felipe Dutra, AB InBev’s CFO said the increase could also â€Å"have something to do with the unseasonably mild weather† (AB InBev, 2011). The newly launched Bud Light Lime and Bud Light Platinum performed well. Dutra said â€Å"We believe we have the right brands to exploit that opportunity,† before, during and after the Olympic games. Budweiser has also extended sponsorship of the soccer World Cup through 2018. AB InBev will continue to rely heavily on their strategic brands (AB InBev, 2011). Conclusion A fundamental part of their culture is never being entirely satisfied with their results: â€Å"we always challenge ourselves to dream bigger and achieve more. . . † (AB InBev, 2011). With continued global growth and expansion and early payoffs of debt, AB InBev will continue to see profits. The company’s innovated thinking will carry it into the millennium.ReferencesAllen, J., & Zook, C. (2012, May 4). The strategic principles of repeatability: How nonnegotiable fuel growth. How can a company sustain profitable growth? [brief]. Retrieved fromhttp://www.bain.com/publications/articles/the-strategic-preincipels-of-repeatability.aspx Anheuser-Busch: Dedication to our craft . (2011). http://anheuser-busch.com/index.php/our-heritage/history/ Anheuser-Busch InBev. (2011). ABInBev Annual Report 2011 [Annual report]. Brouwerijplein, Leuven: AB InBev. Garrison, R. H., Noreen, E. W., & Brewer, P. C. (2010). Managerial Accounting (13th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

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World Religion---If you are not religious, what are your views on Essay

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Condoleeza Rice Essay Upon assumption of her post as State Secretary, Condoleeza Rice has taken steps to bring the State Department under her control. As part of the broad restructuring of the diplomatic corps and under the guise of transformational diplomacy, Rice has shifted hundreds of Foreign Service positions from Europe and Washington to difficult assignments in the Middle East and elsewhere. As evidence of her aim for transformational diplomacy, Rice has even gone to the extent of announcing that diplomats will not be promoted to senior ranks unless they accept assignment in dangerous posts or gain expertise in at least two regions. Even though this move by the State Secretary has been viewed as overwhelming at the least, it has proven nevertheless that Secretary Rice is serious in giving diplomacy and the foreign service a new focus. Whereas diplomats and foreign service personnel focus more on career advancement and development, Rice’s issue of this prerogative as State Secretary, to indeed has improved the administration’s views on foreign policies. Ultimately, it is estimated that about one-third of the 6,400 foreign service positions will be affected in the coming years because of this order. However, it could be said that Rice’s plans are just part of a grand plan to have broader authority over a range of foreign assistance and policy programs thereby ending in politicizing of foreign assistance. For instance, Rice’s plan of restructuring US foreign assistance and elevating the USAID post, specifically the nomination of Randall L. Tobias as the new administrator of the U. S. Agency for International Development, would give the former a rank equivalent of deputy secretary of State. This move is obviously intended to draw the agency closer to the department although it short of a merger between USAID and the State. Moreover, this will give the director broader authorities over a variety of foreign assistance accounts that are managed by separate entities. As Jim Bishop opined, â€Å"We’re concerned that the same priority won’t be given to long-term development as resources are siphoned to support shorter-term diplomatic or military objectives† (Bishop). But it cannot be denied that this restructuring will definitely have ramifications to the diplomatic corps and the State Department as a whole. While it is good that as State Secretary has taken steps to give diplomats the wide experience and expertise in foreign relations before being promoted to a senior rank, such move has subsequently declared to the whole world that the State Department is run by an iron fist. I believe that this management policy would later on prove detrimental to the State Department as there would be thousands of foreign service personnel who will be affected by this order. Instead of being able to focus on the foreign policies advanced by the diplomats, they might rather focus on how to keep their posts and their career. This would mean lesser accomplishment for the promotion of US foreign policies. As Rice has been continuously promoting the idea of transformational diplomacy, she particularly describes it as a shift from merely reporting on events to influencing them to foster the growth of democratic states worldwide (Kessler and Graham). Part of Rice’s plans it to expand US presence in areas where there are only one-person diplomatic posts such Alexandria in Egypt and Medan, Indonesia and bring diplomats closer to the streets unto the pulse of the locale instead of barricading themselves in fortified embassies. The State Department also plans to expand the use of interactive Web sites maintained by diplomats to communicate with foreign citizens, promote the creation of rapid-reaction forces to deal with regional problems and seek to work more closely with military officers to promote the stability of nation conflicts (Rice, interview). The above-mentioned plans for the State’s foreign policies on the other hand would need to be reviewed as most of them seemed to be too grand themes that it might be impossible to accomplish or see the success of even just one policy. For example, Rice’s plan to work more closely with military officers in order to promote the stability of nation conflicts can definitely be considered a far-fetched plan if not hilarious at best. Aside from US allies, the United States has been considerably viewed as being arrogant and pushing its nose on issues not her own. The war in Iraq is a classic example of this. While the Iraqis were happy with the ouster of President Saddam Hussein, they however, were resentful of the continued military presence of the US armed forces in their country. Even the Iraqi soldiers whom the US worked closely with during the invasion and ouster of Saddam Hussein dislike the US policy of â€Å"keeping and maintaining peace† in the Middle East. Moreover, Rice’s plan to promote the creation of rapid-reaction forces to deal with regional problems can be considered as meddling in internal affairs of each country. Foreign diplomats and ambassadors, while representatives of the US government and its interests in a particular country certainly cannot meddle in regional affairs lest it will send a signal of political mistrust on the part of the United States to the country concerned. So long as the interests of the United States are not at risk, the US cannot interfere and force itself and its foreign policies on a country. Perhaps, Rice inadvertently forgot that foreign countries are beyond her control unlike the US State Department where she reigns. The most that she could do is to place pressure on the country only if US interests are at stake. On the other hand, Rice’s may have already succeeded in her efforts to bring the State Department under her control as she already lectured her senior staff about the dangers of media leaks. Thus, normally talkative officials have been observed to speak in carefully hushed tones. But her manner of administration can also considered a perfect example of leadership as she makes sure that she knows the whereabouts of her most senior staff, and once discussed with them a problematic newspaper article in North Korea policy. But nonetheless, Rice knows the power of the media and the messages as well as images it portrays to the whole world. Thus, her staff gives particular attention to the images and shots of Rice around the globe. Moreover, while she emphasizes to her staff the perils of media leaks, she on the other, has mastered the art of dodging questions from reporters that might be detrimental to the points she outlined for her speeches and conferences. In fact, she would often ignore questions that may inadvertently raise sore issues about Bush’s campaigns for democracy. This method practiced by Rice has considerably been sending mixed signals to the world. While it may appear that she is sincere in her efforts to effect the proposed changes in the State Department and the promotion of US foreign policy, it would nonetheless appear as well that she hesitates to trust the media and the world as well to tell them the truth herself. If I were on the part of the reporters, I would find incessantly disturbing that the State Secretary would not want to answer impromptu questions, much less questions that are not in her agenda. As she is the considered the â€Å"face† of the State Department, it would have been better had she practiced the art of being able to connect more with the media. But as I mentioned earlier, Rice seemed to be sending mixed signals and this would be better explained in my discussion of her promotion of democracy. Promotion of Democracy Condoleeza Rice has been repeatedly giving the relentless message to the international community that may have portrayed the State Department as a communications machine of the White House. Since her appointment as the Secretary of State she has articulated the promotion of democracy to any place which needs it. As she told a group of students in Sophia University in Tokyo, Japan, â€Å"We are not going to turn a blind eye to the human desire for freedom anywhere in the world† (Rice). Thus, this statement or something like it has become her rallying point and mantra in promoting democracy and perhaps justifying Bush’s decision to invade Iraq in retaliation to the September 11 attack by terrorists. In contrast to Colin Powell who was known as being an independent operator and has had his share of debates regarding the State Department’s foreign policies with the administration, Rice, on the other hand is seen as bringing the views of the White House into the State Department. This may be attributed to Rice’s loyalty to Bush whom she worked closely with during the Presidential elections. While Powell was uncomfortable giving out speeches that seemed to portray grand schemes and themes, Rice, however loves to give them out in news conferences, interviews and speeches. Rice has delivered major policy addresses designed to place President Bush’s vision with a larger strategic framework (Kessler). For example, while in Paris, she addressed a well-received speech that may have helped lay the groundwork for an agreement with European officials on confronting Iran over its nuclear programs. Then in Tokyo, she outlined a new U. S. vision of Japan’s increasing importance as a global power and challenged China to work harder to â€Å"embrace some form of open and generally representative government† (Kessler). Rice also never fails to insert her love for tourism and the arts into her responsibilities in promoting democracy and US foreign policies. According to aides, these visits demonstrates respect and interest in a country’s heritage and culture, thus, photo-ops are ensured to make Rice look good for the global audience. For example, while Rice was in Beijing, she attended a Sunday church service which although was a private visit and described her as a deeply political woman, it gave another significance as well. It shows Rice’s criticism of China’s lack of religious freedom. As mentioned earlier, Rice has cautioned her staff regarding media leaks and its implications, but nevertheless uses its power in furtherance of her responsibilities to the international community. As such, Rice has brought new media sophistication to an agency that long prided itself on its focus on policy not image. She has dropped Powell’s practice of talking to reporters in front of the glass doors of the State Department after he escorted foreign officials to their cars. Instead, she brings reporters upstairs to the more visually striking Benjamin Franklin room, reminiscent of the rooms in the White House, where she sits with foreign dignitaries in front of a fireplace (Kessler). All these are examples of what Condoleeza Rice is capable of doing despite being the first black woman in history to hold such post. Weapons of Mass Destruction The Bush administration has been washed and plagued with its decision to attack Iraq in response to the terrorist attack on September 11, linking the Al Qaeda and Iraq together. But there was no other person that supported this decision with much ardour than then-National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice. Despite the ramifications that resulted in not finding the weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein and Iraq allegedly harboured, Rice is firm in her belief that they did the right strategic decision although she admits that they have made tactical errors. Even before she was confirmed for the appointment of Secretary of State, Rice faced almost nine hours of gruelling questioning before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in her role in helping the President decide to invade Iraq. While her detractors have pointed out that the administration had made the mistake of invading Iraq over the alleged weapons of mass destruction, Rice on the other insisted that the war in Iraq was not launched solely over the weapons of mass destruction. Accordingly, the deposed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein welcomed terrorists and attacked his neighbors, all the while paying suicide bombers to aggravate the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. For Rice, Saddam Hussein has been an international threat for a long time and that he must be taken out and stopped. Although we can justify Rice’s position with regard to the invasion of Iraq at that time, we cannot deny however that she and the administration has focused so much on the Iraqi threat that the administration may have unconsciously allowed other terrorism hot spots such as Somalia, Indonesia and the Philippines to grow and train. But then again, as Rice claims, she does study terrorist reports everyday and have been taking measures without disrupting international peace efforts and mediation. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for example, Rice claims that the United States is willing to support the government of new Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas but withholds that Arab states must crack down on the incitement of hatred against Israel (CNN). It is evident nonetheless that the administration have focused so much on the Iraqi problem, spending close to $300 billion dollars to disarm the alleged weapons that turned out were not there and spent only $1 billion a year that are sure to exist such as in North Korea. This particular attitude may have been totally in disagreement with what she claimed when she was still the National Security Adviser. According to her, past administrations have permitted defense budgets to decline after the Cold War to a point where the resources were not matching the multiple missions that were asked from the armed forces to perform. This has led the administration to think of foreign assistance and policy at a different light. For the Bush administration, the real goal for each country is to be prepared internally in order to grow economically as well. But as more people are getting aware of, Rice and Bush has indeed focused so much on the war on terrorism and against Iraq that it has failed to address other issues instead of focusing on the other responsibilities of the State Department. While it may be true that the problem of terrorism has grown to such huge proportion, the State Department should not have solely focused on such as there are still other ways in order to combat terrorism. Many political scientists and sociologists claim that foremost in the reason for the spread of terrorism is poverty and economic unrest. People from poverty-stricken countries like Somalia would do everything to continue living so it is inevitable that they would attach themselves to any entity or groups that could fill their stomachs with food in return for doing service for them. Had the State Department focused on policies that helped countries alleviate hunger and poverty, these countries would have not resorted to the use of force and instead would help the United States in its efforts to combat terrorism. Key Issues of Foreign Policy Among Condoleeza Rice’s claim on key issues regarding US foreign policies is to maintain confidence in the American commitment to justice and the rule of law. As such, she has for example urged the international community to act with great speed and deal with the humanitarian crisis in Darfur region in Sudan. Despite the US’ qualm regarding the United Nations International Criminal Court’s responsibility to try Darfur war criminals, claiming that the ICC powers are unchecked by any controlling authority, she has nevertheless showed US support on the resolution. Although she has already made it clear that the United States’ stand regarding the ICC remained unchanged, she asserted that the situation in Darfur was an extraordinary circumstance in which crimes against humanity are clearly being committed and that the world cannot afford further delay in addressing it (Gollust). Moreover, according to Rice, the US had no desire to be world’s jailer and that Washington wanted the terrorists that capture stand trial. Thus, although the United States had another alternate idea for a Darfur war crimes court to be set up in Tanzania but drawing little support instead, have agreed to accept the resolution that empowered the ICC in trying Darfur war crimes. Rice also averred that the use of force is not what is on the agenda now, particularly on the issues of Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programmes. Although they have condemned these countries’ nuclear programmes, Rice nevertheless maintains that they will not take the matters into their own hands and never take any option off the table but would also leave it to the United Nations to decide on the matter. On the other hand, the United States would continue to enhance its close ties with Britain in its fight against terrorism. Both the United States and Britain had been specifically staunch in their efforts to disarm Iraq for its alleged weapons of mass destructions and considering that Britain is among the economically well-favored nations, maintaining friendly and close relations with the country would not only help the United States in its efforts to combat terrorism but to also maintain its excellent economic ties. But we also have to applaud Rice’s guts as she does not hesitate to send stern diplomatic messages to countries that displease her or what she considers as those at the wrong side of freedom. For instance, she explicitly cancelled her trip to the Middle East when Egypt failed to respond to her request of releasing an imprisoned political figure. She also withdrew the US Ambassador from Syria when a former Lebanese prime minister was killed in a bomb blast and contented that additional sanctions might be taken under the Syrian Accountability Act. Conclusion The Secretary of State has enormous responsibility not only to the State Department but to the country as well. As for Condoleeza Rice, she is accountable for whatever decisions and advices that might have gone through her and passed on to the President for final decision. Thus, despite the criticisms that go along with her job, we can safely conclude that in the short years that Condoleeza Rice has replaced Colin Powell, she definitely has made some changes and although her decisions in running the State Department may at times be impugned, the changes under her remarkably had made differences in the Department. Whereas before, foreign service personnel and diplomats were more concerned with their respective career advancement, Rice has made sure that this practice is stopped and that diplomats live up with the expectations and demand of representing the United States to the various international posts. Moreover, Rice’s stance on the administration’s decision to invade Iraq despite the ramifications of such action has proved that she will do everything and that she will continue to defend her and that of the president’s actions. Although it is not difficult to hate and condemn her for methods in acting as the Secretary of State, we can however, commend her because of her ability to express her displeasure on issues that are of importance to her and the US interest.

The integrating earned value management

The integrating earned value management 3.3 EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT 3.3.1 Basics of Earned Value Project Management Project Management is often defined as the integrated management and control of Time, Cost, Resources and Quality for the successful on time and on budget completion of projects. Traditional approaches to PM ranged from simple Gantt Charts which help in representing the work to be done on a time scale to techniques likes CPM and PERT that addresses the needs of deterministic and probabilistic scheduling. All of these techniques tend to be used primarily for managing time. Cost is often measured independently by the accountants. This separation between cost and time is often the cause of project failure because the executing team is often unable to detect cost overruns until they are well past the point where they can change the outcome of the project. 3.3.2 Illustrative Explanation Earned Value Project Management (EVPM) is a concept that helps Project Managers seamless link Time and Cost for more effective control. Despite the difficult sounding title and the typical jargon associated with EVPM the basic idea is very simple and can be used effectively in a wide variety of situations. The best way to under stand EVPM is to walk through a sample project, so I am going to take you through a software project. Lets say we are working on the ERMS (enterprise resource management system) that has 10 deliverables/modules each to be completed in one month with a budget of 10 Lac Rupees each. The total project span works out to 10 months at a budget cost of Rs. 100 Lacs (Rs. 1 crore). We are at the end of the first three months and the Project Manager is busy preparing his project report. He starts up by reviewing progress and finds that two deliverables are fully complete while the third one is 80% complete. He checks with accounts and finds out that that a total of Rs. 28 Lacs have been spent so far. With this information he is ready to assign values to the three basic variables required to perform EVPM. These are as follows- 3.3.2.1 BCWS / Planned Value (PV) Budget Cost for Work Scheduled, also known as ‘Planned Value in the amount of money that should have been spent at this point in the life of the project if the project was proceeding as per plan. It is time phased budget baseline (figure). It is the approved budget for accomplishing the activity, work package or project related to the schedule. It can be viewed as the value to be earned as a function of project Work accomplishments up to a given point in time [12]. In our case we had planned to complete three deliverables in three months so we should have spent Rs. 30 Lac. A word of caution here, most projects dont proceed in a linear fashion (i.e. total budget/total duration in months). Correct BCWS values can be obtained from a resource loaded project plan that takes in account the actually work to be done in each period. Budget Cost for Work Scheduled is also called ‘Planned Value. 3.3.2.2 Budget at Completion (BAC) This is the total budget baseline for the activity, work package or project. It is the highest value of PV as shown in Figure-1 i.e. 100 Lac. 3.3.2.3 ACWP / Actual Cost (AC) This is the cumulative AC spent to a given point in time to accomplish an activity, work-package or project [12]. Actual Cost for Work Performed is the amount of money that we have actually spent on the project. Accounts have told us that we have spent Rs. 28 Lac. 3.3.2.4 BCWP / Earned Value (EV) This is the cumulative earned value for the work completed up to a point in time. It represents the amount budgeted for performing the work that was accomplished by a given point in time [12]. To obtain EV of an item, simply multiply its total budget by its completed proportion. Budget Cost for Work Performed is the assessment of the value of work that we have completed. Think of this as the worth of the work that we have completed, so if we had completed three deliverables we would have Completed 30 Lac Rupees worth of work. But we have only fully completed two deliverables so we have Rs. 20 Lac and we have 80% of the third deliverable. Partial completion is a tricky issue, because partial estimates generally vary from person to person depending on how optimistic or pessimistic they are. There are rules of the thumb (Heuristics) to deal with this situation. The common ones are 0-100 (give no credit till the task is complete), 20-80 (give 20% credit when the task is underway and the remaining 80% when it is completed), 50-50 (give 50% credit for starting the task and the balance on completion). The selection of method is up to you, but you need to ensure that you will use the same measure across the project for all tasks. In our case lets say we go with the 50-50 rule, so well give Rs. 5 Lacs credit for the third deliverable which brings the BCWP to Rs. 25 Lacs (20+5). Note that BCWP is also referred to as the Earned Value (EV). Lets start by calculating the two basic measures of performance SPI and CPI -3.3.2.5 3.3.2.5 Schedule Performance Index (SPI) Schedule Performance Index is an indicator for accessing our performance relative to the plan. SPI = BCWP/BCWS = 25/30 = 0.83. We know we are behind schedule, what SPI is telling us is that we have only completed 83% of the work that we originally planned to complete. 3.3.2.6 Cost Performance Index (CPI) Cost Performance Index shows us how much value we are getting for each Rupee that we spend on the project. CPI= BCWP/ACWP 25/28 = 0.89. We are over budget because, for producing Rs. 25 Lacs of work we have spent Rs. 28 Lacs. So we are only getting 89 Paisas of value for each Rupee that we spend. Just looking at SPI and CPI we know that we have a problem in that we are both over budget and behind schedule. A lot of work has been done on the use of SPI and CPI early in the project to predict the final outcome. Most of the work has been done in the US defense industry where researchers have looked at dozens of completed projects and tried to correlate their outcome with the status of their SPI and CPI early on during the project. Most studies show that the value of SPI and CPI when the project is only 20% complete can very accurately predict the final outcome. Using heuristics developed from these studies we can predict the following- Projected Project Duration = Planned Duration / SPI = 10 / 0.83 = 12 Month. So we are expecting that the project will be completed two month behind schedule, Projected Project Cost = Planned Cost / CPI = 100 / 0.89 = 112 Lacs. We are expecting a Rs. 12 Lacs overrun on the budget. Recovery Cost This is the cost that we will incur if we need to complete the project within the originally specified time by adding additional resource to the project. Projected Project Cost = Planned Cost / CPI*SPI = 100 / 0.89*0.83 = 135 Lacs Rupees. We should be ready to exceed the budget by 35% if we want to complete the project in time. Conventional wisdom says that your ability to change the outcome of a project is maximum at the start or the project and minimum near the end of the project. So it makes good sense to detect problems early and take action when you have room for maneuver. If you think about the 20% point intuitively, youll note that the any estimation errors that are leading to low CPI (i.e. budget overrun) are likely to effect the remaining activities of the project at the same rate, similarly the performance of your resources in execution is unlikely to get any better than what they have proven capable of in the first fifth of the project. Given the importance of early detection, think about conventional project management and how little it can tell you from the fact that you have completed two deliverables and 80% of the third and spent 28 Lac Rupees, Because of this, problems often evade early detection and by the time someone detects the problem its too late in the project to do much about it i.e. in a stage where the project is controlling the project manger instead of vice versa. 3.3.4 Integrating EVM Risk Management In todays uncertain business environment there is understandable pressure to improve the quality of decision-making at all levels in the organization. A number of techniques have been developed to address this concern, in an attempt to introduce some rational framework to the decision-making process. Two of the leading approaches are Earned Value Management (EVM) and Risk Management (RM). These stand out from other decision support techniques because both EVM and RM can and should be applied in an integrated way across the organization. Starting at the project level, both EVM and RM offer powerful insights into factors affecting project performance. Another key similarity between the two techniques lies in the word â€Å"management†. It is possible to conduct â€Å"Earned Value Analysis† and â€Å"Risk Analysis† to expose underlying drivers of performance. But both techniques emphasize the need to move from analysis to management, using the information to support proactive decision-making. Consequently, both EVM and RM encourage those using the techniques to take appropriate management action based on the results, and not to stop at mere analysis. Since both EVM and RM address the same problem space (performance of projects, programs, portfolios and businesses), and both provide management information to provide a basis for decisions and action, there has been considerable interest in the possibility of developing a combined approach to create synergistic benefits. Currently EVM and RM operate as parallel coexisting processes without systematic integration (although good project managers may intuitively link the two in practices). Much of the discussion to date on the relationship between EVM and RM has been rather theoretical, addressing the key principles underlying the two techniques. The objective is to analyze steps that can be implemented to combine EVM and RM in order to gain maximum benefit for projects and the organization. 3.3.4.1 Weakness in EVM and RM The strength of EVM RM has already been described, as their proponents seek to encourage wider update use. Each technique however has atleast one key weakness which presents a significant danger to those relying on the output to support strategic or tactical decision-making. For EVM, one of the main perceived weaknesses is its reliance on a key assumption, that future performance can be predicted based on past performance. Calculated performance measures (CPI, SPI, CV, SV etc) are used to predict forwards and estimate cost at completion or overall duration. Unfortunately there is no guarantee that the basic EVM assumption will be true, and it is likely that the future will deviate from that predicted by simply extrapolating from past performance. The strength of EVM lies in its rigorous examination of what has already occurred on the project, using quantitative metrics to evaluate project past performance. It goes on however to predict future performance by extrapolating from the past. But it is not possible to drive a car by only looking in the rear-view mirror. A forward view is also required, and this Is what RM offers. While project planning looks at the next steps which lie immediately ahead, RM has a horizon further into the future, It acts as forward-looking radar, scanning the uncertain and unclear future to identify potential dangers to be avoided, as well as seeking possible additional benefits to be captured. However this undoubted strength of being resolutely and exclusively future-focused is also one of the key weaknesses in RM. Any thing which occurred in the past is of little or no interest to the risk process, since there is no uncertainty associated with past events. RM starts with todays status quo and looks ahead. How the project reached its current position is not relevant to the risk process, unless one is seeking to learn lessons to assist RM on future projects. As a result RM as commonly implemented often lacks a meaningful context within which to interpret identified risks, since it has no means of capturing past performance and feeding this into the decision-making process. If EVM is weakened by assuming that future performance can be predicted from past performance, and if RM is weakened by looking only forwards with no real awareness of the past, a useful synergy might be obtained if a combined EVM-RM approach were able to address these weaknesses. Combining a rear-view mirror with forward-looking radar would use the strengths of complementary approaches to compensate for the weaknesses inherent in using each alone. Consequently it is possible to produce significant benefits by using RM to provide the forward view required by EVM, and by using EVM to provide the context required for RM. 3.3.4.2 Synergies from a Combined Approach Given the common aims of EVM and RM to examine and expose drivers of project performance in order to focus management attention on achievement of objectives, and given their differing perspectives towards the past and the future, a number of areas of possible synergy exist between the two techniques. The steps required to implement these synergies are [18]: Creating the baseline spend plan Predicting future outcomes Evaluating risk process effectiveness 1. Creating the baseline spend plan The foundation for EVM is the baseline plan of expected spend over time, creating the profile of â€Å"Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled† (BCWS) or â€Å"Planned Value† (PV) against which project performance is measured. This baseline is derived from a costed and resourced project plan, including fixed and variable costs arising from financial and human resources. The BCWS profile is typically presented as a cumulative curve, or S-curve, as in Figure below. The baseline BCWS exists as the benchmark against which project performance will be measured. However one of the first things a project manager learns is that reality will never precisely match the project plan. As soon as work starts, there are variations in productivity, resource and information availability, delivery dates, material costs, scope etc. This is why a rigorous change control process is vital to successful project management. Although not all changes can be foreseen before the project starts, it is possible to assess the degree of uncertainty in a project plan, in both time and cost dimensions. This is the domain of RM. One of the first contributions that RM can make to EVM is to make explicit the consideration of uncertainty and risk when constructing the baseline BCWS. By undertaking a full risk assessment of the project plan before the project starts, addressing uncertainties in both time and cost, it is possible to evaluate the degree of risk in the baseline project plan. Quantitative risk analysis techniques are particularly useful for this, especially the use of Monte Carlo simulation on integrated models which include both time and cost uncertainty. These risk models take account of variability in planned values, also called â€Å"estimating uncertainty† (for example by replacing planned single-point estimates of duration or cost with three-point estimates or other distribution types), and they should also model the effect of discrete risks to reflect their assessed probability of occurrence and the subsequent impact on project time and/or cost. Both threats and opportunities should be addressed in the risk model, representing the possibility of exceeding or failing to meet the project plan. The results of the risk analysis allow the best case project outcome to be determined, representing the cheapest and. quickest way to reach project completion. Similarly a worst case profile can be produced, with highest cost and longest duration. All other possible outcomes are also calculated, allowing the â€Å"expected outcome† within this range to be identified. These can be shown as a set of three related S-curves, as in Figure below, which take account of both estimating uncertainty (variability in planned events) and discrete risks (both positive opportunities and negative threats). The ellipse at the end of the curves represents all possible calculated projects outcomes (90% confidence limit), with the top-right value showing worst-case (highest cost, longest schedule), the bottom-left giving best-case (cheapest and Quickest), and the centre of gravity of the ellipse being at the expected outcome of project cost and duration. The existence of this set of possible project outcomes raises the question of where the baseline spends profile for EVM should be set. The recommendation from a combined approach to EVM and RM is to use the expected value cumulative profile from a quantitative time-cost risk analysis as the baseline for BCWS. In other words, the central S-curve in Figure 2 would be used as the baseline instead of the S-curve in Figure 1. This ensures that the EVM baseline fully reflects the risk associated with the project plan (including an appropriate amount for contingency which is automatically incorporated in the risk analysis results), rather than measuring performance against the raw â€Å"all-goes-to-plan† plan. 2. Predicting future outcomes Both EVM and RM attempt to predict the future outcome of the project, based on information currently known about the project. For EVM this is achieved using calculated performance indices, with a range of formulae in use for calculating Estimate At Completion (EAC). Most of these formulae start with the Actual Cost of Work Performed to date (ACWP, or Actual Cost AC), and add the remaining budget adjusted to take account of performance to date (usually using the Cost Performance Index CPI, or using a combined Performance Efficiency Factor based on both CPI and SPI). These calculations of the Estimate To Complete (ETC) are used to extrapolate the ACWP plot for the remainder of the project to estimate where the project might finally end (EAC), as shown In Figure 3 below. RM predicts a range of possible futures by analyzing the combined effect of known risks and unknown uncertainty on the remainder of the project. When an integrated time-cost risk model is used, the result is a set of S-curves similar to Figure 2, but covering the uncompleted portion of the project, as In Figure 4. It is also possible to use risk nalysis results to show the effect of specific risks(threats or opportunities) on project performance as measured by earned value. Since the risk analysis includes both estimating uncertainty discrete risks, the model can be used to perform â€Å"what-if† scenario analysis showing the effect of addressing particular risks. 3. Evaluating risk process effectiveness A risk can be defined as â€Å"any uncertainty that, if it occurs, would have a positive or negative effect on achievement of one or more project objectives†. RM aims to address this uncertainty proactively in order to ensure that project objectives are achieved, including completing on time and within budget. As a result, if RM is fully effective, actual project performance should closely match the plan. Since EVM performance indices (CPI, SPI) measure deviation from plan, they can be used to indicate whether the risk process is being effective in addressing uncertainty and controlling its effects on project performance. If CPI and/or SPI are below 1.0 indicating that project performance is falling short of the plan, then one of the most likely underlying causes is that the risk process is failing to keep the project on course. An Ineffective risk process would fail to avoid adverse risks (threats) proactively, and when threats materialize into problems the project incurs delay and/or additional cost. Either the risk process is not identifying the threats, or it is not preventing them from occurring. In this situation, management attention should be directed to the risk process, to review its effectiveness and consider whether additional resources are required, or whether different techniques should be used. Conversely, if CPI and/or SPI are above 1.0 indicating that project performance is ahead of plan, the risk process should be focused on exploiting the opportunities created by this situation. Best-practice RM addresses both threats and opportunities, seeking to minimize threats and maximize opportunities. When EVM indicates that opportunities exist, the risk process should explore options to capture them and create additional benefits for the project. It should also be noted that if CPI and/or SPI far exceed 1.0, this may indicate other problems in the project and may not simply be due to the existence of opportunities. Typically, if actual performance is much greater than expected or planned, this could indicate poor planning or incorrect scoping when setting up the initial baseline plan. If this highly anomalous behavior continues, a baseline re-planning effort should be considered, which of course will involve the need for further risk management. Similarly if CPI and/or SPI are well below 1.0, this may not simply be due to the impact of unmanaged threats, but may indicate problems with the baseline plan or scope. Figure 5 illustrates the relationship between the values of EVM indices (CPI and/or SPI) and RM process effectiveness. The key to using EVM indices as indicators of RM effectiveness is to determine appropriate thresholds where action is required to refocus the risk process. Clearly some variation of EVM indices is to be expected as the project unfolds, and it would not be wise to modify the risk process in response to every small change in CPI /or SPI. However if a trend develops crosses the thresholds of â€Å"common variance†, action should be considered. Figure 6 illustrate this, with the thresholds of â€Å"common variance† for CPI /or SPI set at = 0.9 and =1.25. A further â€Å"warning threshold† is set at 0.75, suggesting that an adverse trend is developing and preparatory steps should be taken. The thresholds of 0.75, 0.9 and 1.25 used in Figure 6 are illustrative only, and organizations may be able to determine more appropriate threshold values by reviewing historical trend data for CPl and SPI, and identifying the limits of â€Å"common variance† for their projects. Plotting the trend of CPI and SPI over time against such thresholds also gives useful information on the type of risk exposure faced by the project at any given point. For example Figure 6 Indicates that the project schedule is under pressure (SPI trend is consistently below 1.0), suggesting that the risk process should focus on addressing sources of time risk. The figure also suggests that cost savings are possible which might create opportunities that can be exploited, and the risk process might be able to maximize these. These recommended action types are illustrated in Figure 7, corresponding to the following four situations: Both CPI and SPI high (top-right quadrant), creating opportunities to be captured Both CPI and SPI low (bottom-left quadrant), requiring aggressive action to address threats High SPI but low CPI (top-left quadrant), requiring focused attention to cost risk, with the possibility of spending additional time to address High CPI but low SPI (bottom-right quadrant), where attention should be paid to addressing schedule risk, and cost trade-offs can be considered Figure 7 also suggests that if either CPI or SPI (or both) remain abnormally high or low, the baseline plan should be re-examined to determine whether the initial scope was correct or whether underlying planning assumptions were unfounded. It is important to note that these action types should be viewed only as 1st options, since other considerations may lead to different actions. For example in projects with high schedule-constraints (e.g. product launch, event management etc), the trade-off between time cost may be prioritized differently than in cost-constrained projects. 3.3.4.3 Discussion Both Earned Value Management (EVM) and Risk Management (RM) seek to improve decision-making by providing a rational framework based on project performance. EVM examines past performance against clearly-defined quantitative metrics, and uses these to predict the future outcome for the project. RM looks ahead to identify and assess uncertainties with the potential to affect project performance either positively or negatively, and develops responses to address each risk proactively. Both techniques share a focus on project performance, and have the same purpose of developing effective actions to correct unwelcome trends in order to maximize the Likelihood of achieving project objectives. One (EVM) does this by looking back at past performance as an indicator of likely future performance. The other (RM) looks ahead at possible influences on future project outcomes. These two approaches are not in conflict or mutually exclusive. Indeed their commonalities imply a powerful synergy, which i s available through combining the complementary strengths of each technique and using insights from one to inform the application of the other (as summarized in Table 5). 1. Creating the baseline spend plan (BCWS/PV) Develop costed WBS to describe scope of work, without hidden contingency Produce fully costed and resourced project schedule Assess estimating uncertainty associated with initial time/cost estimates Perform risk identification, risk assessment and response development Quantify time and cost risk exposure for each risk, taking account of the effect of agreed responses Create integrated time/cost risk model from project schedule, reflecting both estimating uncertainty (via 3-point estimates) Select risk-based profile as baseline spend profile (BCWS/PV); it is most common to use the â€Å"expected values†, although some other confidence level may be selected (say 80%) 2. Predicting future outcomes (EAC) Record project progress and actual cost spent to date (ACWP), and calculate earned value (BCWP) Review initial time/cost estimates for activities not completed, to identify changes, including revised estimating uncertainty Update risk identification, assessment and quantification, to identify new risks and reassess existing risks Update integrated time/cost risk mode! with revised values for estimating uncertainty and discrete risks, taking account of progress to date and agreed risk responses Select risk-based calculation as estimate of final project duration and cost (EAC), using either â€Å"expected values†, or some other confidence level (say 80%) Use risk-based profile as updated expected spend from time-now to project completion 3. Evaluating risk management process effectiveness Determine threshold values for CPI and SPI to trigger corrective action in risk process (or use default values of 0.75, 0.90 and 1.25) Calculate earned value performance indices (CPI and SPI), plot trends and compare with thresholds Consider modifications to risk process if CPI and/or SPI cross thresholds, enhancing the process to tackle opportunities more effectively if CPI and/or SPI are high, or refocusing the process on threat reduction if they are low Take appropriate action either to exploit opportunities (high CPI/SPI), address threats (low CPI/SPI), spend contingency to recover time (high CPI/low SPI), or spend time to reduce cost drivers (high SPI/low CPI) Consider need to review initial baseline, project plan or scope if CPI and/or SPI persistently have unusually high or low value Table-5: Summary of steps to integrate EVM and RM http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/orpmug/59678/HTML/default/evm_sect3.htm http://www.tech-archive.net/Archive/Project/microsoft.public.project/2007-05/msg00594.html http://www.allpm.com/index.php?name=Newsfile=articlesid=2184 http://www.allpm.com/index.php?name=Newsfile=articlesid=2184theme=Printer http://www.freepatentsonline.com/4424121.html http://www.ustreas.gov/tigta/auditreports/reports/094602fr.html http://www.ustreas.gov/tigta/auditreports/reports/094602fr.html http://www.dcma.mil/communicator/spring_summer04/evm.cfm http://www.parm.com/index.php?option=com_contenttask=viewid=171Itemid=35 http://www.parm.com/index.php?option=com_contenttask=viewid=177Itemid=35 http://www.scribd.com/doc/4614499/Project-Performance-Measurement http://www.baz.com/kjordan/swse625/htm/tp-py.htm http://guidebook.dcma.mil/79/evhelp/what.htm http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm/faqs/evbasics.htm http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/bank/hba57680.000/hba57680_0.HTM http://www.allbusiness.com/management/risk-management/8945762-1.html http://www.parm.com/index.php?option=com_contenttask=viewid=171Itemid=35 http://www.bcs.org/server.php?show=ConWebDoc.5912 http://www.plannerlife.info/2007/07/what-is-earned-value.html http://evm.nasa.gov/tutoriala.html Earned Value Management (EVM) Tutorial http://glossary.tenrox.com/earned-value.htm http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/orpmug/59678/HTML/default/cpm_sect42.htm http://www.ombudsman.forces.gc.ca/rep-rap/sr-rs/sf-ts/rep-rap-02-eng.asp http://www.freepatentsonline.com/6006060.html http://www.pmi.org/Search/GenieRedirector.aspx?genieID=6685iss=1 http://www.pmi-cpm.org/pages/events/IPM06/Practice_Symposia.html http://edgar.sec.gov/about/oig/audit/337fin.htm http://www.scribd.com/doc/4614499/Project-Performance-Measurement http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm/faqs/evbasics.htm http://www.baz.com/kjordan/swse625/htm/tp-py.htm http://www.parm.com/index.php?option=com_contenttask=viewid=177Itemid=35 http://www.dcma.mil/communicator/spring_summer04/evm.cfm http://guidebook.dcma.mil/79/evhelp/what.htm

Implementing an Attendance System in 3AAA

Implementing an Attendance System in 3AAA Henry Brown Carry out a systems investigation on implementing an attendance system in 3AAA: Brief: Pyus Pyxidis have taken on a project to investigate the possible attendance systems to be used by 3AAA academy staff. The investigation should allow myself as an employee of PP, to research possible service providers, programs and ways of implementing a new attendance system for 3AAA. What is currently used?      Ã‚   Before starting my research into different products and services I needed to first find out what current media/service is used by 3AAA to conduct their attendance checks for pupils in their colleges across the country. The use of a hard copy may also limit the speed of passing the information along to the next representative in the company which you may not get with an online based system. When researching the new alternative I shall keep in mind the simplicity factor as well as the effective layout used. End User Investigation: The first stage to my investigation was to interview Andrew Maddison, the Leading Member in I.T. at 3AAA. I approached the interview in an organised way by using a question sheet which was prepared earlier. I highlighted important questions to ask Andrew so that I could make the most of my time with him. Fig.1. shows an image of the first page of the completed question paper. Below is a manuscript of the interview paper. Q: What would be your most valued feature in your current of documenting attendances? A:Needs to be simple and easy to understand. Keep the current format. Q: How much time is required to input your data into the document? A: Around 20 minutes. However, data has to sit around for up to 4 days before it is sent away to head office. Due to this no immediate action can be taken if there is a problem. Q: Does the time taken need to be addressed and or shortened? A: This could be dealt with by bringing in an online system. Possibly cloud based. This could be used with many different administrative rights to allow the right people to view the data. This could be achieved by using an independent online service. Conclusion: There was a lot of useful information gathered from the interview. Some of the main points drawn suggested that a cloud based service may be the best way to go with the project. This would also aid product function and efficiency in communication as well as speed and ease of implementation across the whole of 3AAA. Investigation of Services: This section of the investigation focuses on the service that would best suit the project. I will take into consideration price, ease of use and reliability of the service. In this section I looked at 5 of the top cloud based services which all had their positives and negatives. I worked the 5 down into the two best services to further compare which will aid in choosing the best option. The two options which I narrowed down where Microsofts Azure service and Amazons AWS. Microsoft Azure: Positives: Negatives: -Control: MA allows you to have access and Active Directory on the service. This allows more freedom and control. The service also allows for multiple administrative users who can all create amendments and have an input into the system. -The long-term trajectory is not very clear. There are possibilities of Microsoft not fully committing to the service down the road. -Platforms: Rival platforms and operating systems are supported on this system. -Microsoft are not innovators in the industry for this service. -Lifespan: Annual upgrades are in effect and will allow the service to work and run for a prolonged amount of time. The system should be supported for the next 10 years if not longer. -Open source applications do not have the same amount of support as Microsoft applications which can make it difficult in fault finding. Pricing: Microsoft Azure has been the cheapest option with both quoted prices being lower than AWS. The drop in prices over a two-year period shows how Microsoft are finding more efficient and cost effect ways to run their service. Amazon AWS: Positives Negatives -Features: The service offers very similar things to Microsoft Azure. -Outages: This service has a history of outages and can be unreliable. -Scalable: The service will allow for expansion very easily as it is like paying for water or gas. The Service can expand with the businesss needs. Speed: The download speeds from the service can sometimes be slow unless extra amounts are paid. -Costs: Can eliminate large IT overheads and be more cost effective by using this service. Transactions: These can become expensive and the user may even need to pay for activity as well as additional storage. Pricing: Conclusion: After an in-depth comparison of the two services I have decided to choose Microsoft Azure as my service provider for this investigation. I have based my choice on both features of Azure, the cost and the prospect of prolonged support. Azure offers a more competitive pricing package as well as offering better support for the site. The uptime and SLA packages are far superior to AWS making MS AZURE the right choice for the Register platform. MoSCoW Method: The MoSCoW method is a prioritisation technique used in business, project, web, analysis and a much larger array of management. The Method is very effective at helping the project leaders/managers in prioritising the most important factors. The work of prioritising the most important sections will help in the success of the project. For example if the priority of a project is to create a simple and effective design of a website that chooses function over aesthetic, then this can be easily highlighted in the MoSCoW method to make it easier to follow. So the project would show Must have: A well-functioning engine on the website to insure that the system functions to a high standard. Should have: A budget of  £200,000 or less. Could have: Offline features. Wont have: An instant messaging service. E.g. This method is good for working with time constraints as it allows the project manage to pick the most important aspects which MUST be completed. This then allows for other important but not as pivotal factors to be added to the other sections such as SHOULD and COULD. Many projects will say that they would like to have at least 60% effort put into the project as a minimum. (Even if time and resources are short the effort cannot drop below 60%) As the scale moves down to lesser priorities then 100% effort would be needed to achieve the lower options. Fig.7 (2017). 4.bp.blogspot.com. Retrieved 17 January 2017 (M) Must Have: These will be the fundamental requirements needed to ensure that the project can be a success. These areas have been highlighted by the client as important and integral functions. Priority Requirements Specification 1 Simple and easy to use Keep design simple yet still stylish as well as keep the tools/buttons as clear as possible. 2 Permissions for different staff This is to prevent unauthorised access to certain files, settings and other areas which can be effected. 3 Encryption and Security SSL level encryption will be used to protect the students data and the system will be locked down to prevent an unauthorised access or hacking. 4 Homepage and Dashboard This will be used to make it easier to navigate the website and improve the function (S) Should Have: These requirements are not as important or as critical as the ones previous. They are still an important part of the project however they are not critical. Due to tight time frames Should specifications can be held back till another time or fit in after the Must have been completed. Priority Requirements Specification 1 The budget of the project should be  £200,000 Keep costs down where possible and meet deadlines to ensure no further costs are added due to delays. (Client specified to keep below  £200,000 if possible) 2 The project will have a 6 month timeline The client needs the system to be up and running by the end of August 2017. 3 The system will use both off the shelf products and custom made services The blend of custom and off the shelf will ensure that the system will suit the specific needs of the client as well as help to keep the cost down at the same time. 4 Colour coding system will be used for present, Absent and Late etc. This will show an easy to understand visual representation as well as written e.g. P,A and L will be used to represent the different options as well as the colours. (C) Could Have: Requirements in this section are to be done if the right resources are available and if the client decides for more options. These are not as important as the other two sections above and are only to be attempted once the two previous sections have been completed. Priority Requirements Specification 1 Vibrant colour scheme Colour scheme will make it easier to navigate and add a more aesthetic feel to the site. 2 Colour coding Colour coding within the register itself will make it easier to read and understand. 3 Dropdown menus This would make it easier to navigate the site and reach the different areas faster. 4 Flag inactive users The administrator can be informed of inactivity of users. (W) Wont Have: This requirement is something that is not necessarily needed for this project and will ultimately be decided by the client stakeholders in the future to see if it is needed in an extension of the same project. Priority Requirements Specification 1 Instant messaging service This is an expensive and time consuming service to create and set up. 3AAA already have ways of communicating so this wont be needed. Lifecycle: I have chosen to use the Agile Lifecycle model for this investigation as it has many useful features which would insure a successful implementation of the service to 3AAA. This project would need a tailored plan to correctly implement successfully, the iteration feature in this lifecycle model would allow for safe checks and various demo releases to be tested before the system in launched. Fig.6. shows a detailed diagram of the Agile Lifecycle Model with the relevant sections and detailed iterations. The Agile development cycle would work extremely well to meet the needs of the project. The multiple iterations of the cycle will allow the development process to be as effective as possible. The cycle will be very effective for the projects timescale of 6 months as it allows the developers plenty of time and iterations to get the system working as effectively as possible. The agile cycle allows the project managers to break the project down itself into smaller and more manageable areas. This works hand in hand with the MoSCoW project and will make the project more scalable to the team creating it. The different sections of the MoSCoW theory will work very well with the cycles iterations to ensure each stage Must, Should, Could etc. are completed in the correct order and to a level which will meet the clients expectations. Design Function: I have designed the website to run on an array of Internet Browsers however I have used screenshots from Google Chrome as the service works best on the specific browser. Below are a series of screenshots from the Beta copy of the proposed Attendance System. Login Prompt: This would be the primary interface for the users to gain access to the service. The 3AAA member of staff would simply need to search for https://www.3aaa.co.uk/login/attendance-register in their browser to reach this page. The member of staff would use a unique login name such as J_Smith for example to login. The password would be customisable by the user to best insure security for that users online profile. (The password change feature can be found in the settings tab on the drop down menu at the top of the page.) Particular members of staff would have Admin rights to the service to allow for editing, new menus and features to be added. This means that the webpage can be maintained correctly and work as it should. Staff with Administrative rights will have a slightly different colour scheme to indicate the users rights on the page so that it would be easily to identify the different users. For example, an Administrative user would have a red band at the top of the page just above the drop down menu. Overview: Once the user has successfully gained access to the service they would usually navigate from the home page to the Register area via the drop down menu. Once in the Register area the page will default to the Overview section. The Overview section shows a detailed overview of the students in the staff members selected class. The data provided is the students ID number, Name, Days present as well as a chart to the far right showing how many days absent, present and if they were present in the Am and or PM sessions. Register: This section allows the staff member to input the data to the online system. It is easy to follow and use as the user can simply place a Y to present a tick and an N to show a cross in the wanted box. This service allows a real time update to 3AAAs records which will be stored on Microsoft Azure protected servers. The live update allows 3AAA staff members to receive updates from all of the colleges across the UK at the same time to keep their records up to date. Report: The Report section shows a detailed report of a specifically chosen learner from the academy/college. A full term for the learner can be viewed and displayed with further options to edit from certain staff members. This section shows a column with how many days have been missed by the pupil as well as days present. Different students can be selected easily and various information can be seen about the learner such as guardians, student ID numbers and DOB. Student List: This section shows the current pupils of the staff member. Much like the report section, details and information about students are displayed. Information about students can be altered in the Edit tab as well as new students can be added through this feature. Other sections are available such as Download, Comments and Edit, however they are relevant to this investigation and a normal feature which is seen on many different sites. Conclusion: The Beta is still a work in progress however I believe I have achieved the desired design, functional and usability features requested by 3AAA. I have followed a 3AAA colour scheme to fit in with other websites and products promoted by the company. The prototype/demo of the online system can be seen above. Below is a further update to the online system after the Agile cycle was followed again. The project was cycled another three times to refine the sites functionality and aesthetics. The site has maintained many of the positive aspects of the beta and prototype however the site has been created to appear more user friendly and more professional. See shots of the site below. Mobile Access: The site can also be accessed via mobile devices. This is to make the function and use as simple as possible for the users and students. The teachers can use this feature too however it is primarily created so that the students can access it whilst in break out rooms or when they are first entering the college so that the register times are as accurate as physically possible. This will allow for reports to be sent back to head office as soon as possible so that there are no delays.   The mobile site uses a very similar layout to the browser version however it is slightly adapted to best fit the mobile browsers and thus make the function and design more accessible to the users and students. Below is screenshots from a mobile device showing the site loaded into a browser. Implementation: In this section I will look at the ways I can implement this service across the company. I must investigate the ways 3AAA currently distribute data and follow a similar path. Due to fact I have based the attendance system on a cloud based service there will be no need for software packs to distributed around which many attendance systems are based on. This process can be fairly expensive and the problem of 3AAAs hardware in their sites could cause a problem. The auditing process would also be very lengthy. This confirms that the cloud based platform may be the best way to go for the system. The service is well looked after by Microsoft as it is part of package. Another added perk in the service is that more server space can be purchased easily if the site ever needed expanding. Conclusion: This concludes this investigation into a new attendance system for 3AAA. I have covered the customers requirements, researched a service provider, developed a function able webpage to use as an attendance system and described the implementation procedure I plan to follow. The system has been designed to make the day to day function of signing in/marking the register easier for both the teachers and students. The website can be reached by both computer and mobile devices to make it as simple as possible for the students to access the site to sign in and use it. The register will be implemented gradually by using both Medias at the same time to ensure that it is working correctly before finishing with the paper and pen copies. This will ensure that accurate registers are still sent to head office and the users and students can be integrated into the system effectively. 3aaa have over 50+ academy sites around the UK with thousands of learners who attend on a frequent basis. This means that the system must be as full proof as possible to ensure an effective transition in the academies. The ease of use of having the system on the students mobile devices will ensure that the sign in process is as accurate as possible due to the speed in which the students can access the site through a mobile web page and log on. This process will allow for an accurate time stamp as the learners arrive to site as opposed to waiting until they were behind their desks to log on to the desktop site which would not be until after college had started at around 9:15 and would give a false reading. The system would also have all the information needed for students to contact the academy and individuals inside the academy. The students can use options on the site to report illness or and general absences. This can also be done through their mobile devices as well as a desktop browser. This will allow for staff at the college to know if a learner will be attending or not as soon as possible and will avoid any delays for 3aaa. Reference Screenshots: References: http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/6730-best-time-and-attendance-systems.html https://azure.microsoft.com/en-gb/services/sql-database/ https://www.syntaxismyui.com/taking-attendance-with-xamarin-beacons-and-microsoft-azure/ https://xamarin.com/ http://www.slideshare.net/kcsq8/kuwait-computer-servicesibatimeattendancebrochureen https://xamarin.com/download http://npifinancial.com/blog/pros-and-cons-digging-into-amazon-web-services/ http://geekswithblogs.net/hroggero/archive/2015/08/12/sample-pricing-comparison-2-amazon-aws-and-microsoft-azure.aspx Www.Google.com www.3aaa.co.uk  Ã‚